Fire regime attributes shape pre-fire vegetation characteristics controlling extreme fire behavior under different bioregions in Spain

Abstract

Designing effective land management actions addressed to increase ecosystem resilience requires us to understand how shifting fire regimes are shaping landscapes. In this study, we aim to assess the link between fire regime and pre-fire vegetation biophysical characteristics (type, amount, and structure) in controlling extreme fire behavior across Atlantic-Transition-Mediterranean bioregions in Spain marked by different summer drought conditions and dominant plant regenerative traits. We used remote sensing metrics to estimate fire severity and pre-fire vegetation characteristics in eight study areas recently affected by large and highly severe wildfires under different environmental contexts. Furthermore, to account for fire regime attributes, we retrieved, for each target wildfire, the perimeter of the past wildfires that occurred between 1985 and 2022 and calculated fire recurrence, the time the since last fire (TSLF), and fire severity of previous wildfires (FSPW). The effect of fire regime attributes on pre-fire vegetation was examined using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). During the study period, fire recurrence decreased significantly in all bioregions analyzed. Fire severity increased under Atlantic conditions and decreased under Mediterranean environmental context, where the time since the last fire was the highest. Pre-fire fuel type and amount were identified as primary drivers of fire severity, being both strongly modulated by fire regime but following distinct mechanisms depending on the environmental context of each bioregion. In Atlantic sites, more frequent past wildfires of low to moderate fire severity were associated with a greater dominance of fire-prone shrublands with moderate fuel amounts, which increases the risk of severe wildfires. Similar trends occurred in Transition and Mediterranean sites but under the previous occurrence of highly severe wildfires. Specifically, long times after highly severe wildfires (> 30 years) increased fuel amount in conifer-dominated ecosystems in all bioregions analyzed, heightening susceptibility to extreme fire behavior. Our findings highlight that fire-prone ecosystems need adaptative management strategies to mitigate the effects of fire regime changes, but these actions should be specific to the climatic and ecological context.