Volatility forecasting incorporating intraday positive and negative jumps based on deep learning model

Abstract

Most existing studies on volatility forecasting have focused on interday characteristics and ignored intraday characteristics of high-frequency data, especially the asymmetric impact of positive and negative jumps on volatility. In this paper, 5-min high-frequency data are used to construct realized volatility which is decomposed into continuous components and jump components with positive and negative directions. Then, this information is combined with the long short-term memory model for the realized volatility prediction. The empirical analysis demonstrates that negative jumps resulting from negative news have a more significant impact on market volatility than positive jumps. Additionally, the long short-term memory model, which incorporates positive and negative jump volatility, outperforms traditional econometric and machine learning models in predicting out-of-sample volatility. Furthermore, applying the prediction results to value at risk yields a better measurement effect than the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model.