{"title":"MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF MEASLES IN TURKEY","authors":"Osman Isik Rasit, N. Tuncer, M. Martcheva","doi":"10.1142/s0218339024500323","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we use a previously developed measles model to forecast measles in Turkey for the period 1970–2021. We study the structural identifiability of the model both by hand and using software. By hand, we assume the prevalence and the total population size are given. Using software, we assume the incidence and the total population size are given. The model is structurally identifiable if one of the three parameters is fixed. We notice that Turkey has a significant change in time of the immigration rate and vaccination proportions, so we assume these two quantities are time-dependent. We fit the nonautonomous model to the measles incidences in Turkey for 1970–2021. We perform practical identifiability of the fitted model, and find that all parameters but one are practically identifiable. When fixing the unidentifiable parameter to a value derived from additional data, we obtain that all parameters are practically identifiable.","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":" 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":17.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218339024500323","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
In this paper, we use a previously developed measles model to forecast measles in Turkey for the period 1970–2021. We study the structural identifiability of the model both by hand and using software. By hand, we assume the prevalence and the total population size are given. Using software, we assume the incidence and the total population size are given. The model is structurally identifiable if one of the three parameters is fixed. We notice that Turkey has a significant change in time of the immigration rate and vaccination proportions, so we assume these two quantities are time-dependent. We fit the nonautonomous model to the measles incidences in Turkey for 1970–2021. We perform practical identifiability of the fitted model, and find that all parameters but one are practically identifiable. When fixing the unidentifiable parameter to a value derived from additional data, we obtain that all parameters are practically identifiable.
期刊介绍：
Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance.
Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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