Modeling measles transmission in adults and children: Implications to vaccination for eradication

Abstract

Despite the availability of successful vaccines, measles outbreaks have occurred frequently in recent years, presumably due to the lack of proper vaccination implementation. Moreover, measles cases in adult groups, albeit small in number, indicate that the previously neglected adult group may need to be brought into vaccine coverage to achieve WHO's goal of measles eradication from the globe. In this study, we develop a novel transmission dynamics model to describe measles cases in adults and children to evaluate the role of adult infection in persistent measles cases and vaccination programs for eradication. Analysis of our model, validated by measles cases from outbreaks in Nepal, provides the vaccination reproduction number (conditions for measles eradication or persistence) and the role of contact network size. Our results highlight that while children are primary targets for measles outbreaks, a small number of infections in adults may act as a reservoir for measles, causing obstacles to eradication. Furthermore, our model analysis shows that while impactful controls can be achieved by children-focused vaccines, a combined adult-child vaccination program may help assert eradication of the disease.