Scottish Performance in the Programme for International Student Assessment, 2006–2022: Falling Attainment and Rising Inequality

Abstract

The Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), run by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), is the largest regular investigation of school students’ attainment globally. It has been conducted usually every three years since 2006, measuring attainment of 15-year-olds in reading, mathematics and science. It also records wide-ranging information about students’ social characteristics and about their experience of school. The most recent round, in 2022, showed Scottish attainment to have fallen in all three domains. Although the decline since 2018 was partly due to the disruption caused by the Covid pandemic, this was not the whole explanation because Scottish scores have been falling since 2006. At the same time, social inequality has been widening. The paper summarises the evidence on this, and, by comparing the Scottish results with those in England, considers whether part of the explanation might be the different policies on the school curriculum in the two systems.