The cost and climate impact of myopic investment decisions in the chemical industry

Abstract

Rapid demand growth would double GHG emissions of fossil-based chemicals and plastics production by 2050. In contrast, recycling, biomass utilization, and electrification enable pathways to net-zero GHG emissions. Such pathways often compare the costs of fossil and renewable technologies based on the next 30 years. However, this assumption contrasts the timeframes of legislative periods and investors desiring fast returns, leading to myopic (i.e., short-term) investment decisions. Therefore, this study compares pathways based on long-term with myopic decision-making. While a 20-year foresight still achieves net zero by 2050, a 10-year foresight fails the net-zero target and increases cumulated GHG emission by 43%. Moreover, the chemical industry would invest +307 bn-USD (+3.2%) in additional fossil and, thus, potentially stranded assets. Therefore, industry and investors should account for the environmental and economic impacts of myopic decision-making and practice long-term decision-making to mitigate carbon lock-ins, stranded assets, and financial risks for investors.