{"title":"Charting the course: India’s health expenditure projections for 2035","authors":"Pragyan Monalisa Sahoo , Himanshu Sekhar Rout","doi":"10.1016/j.glohj.2024.05.001","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><p>Understanding past trends and forecasting future changes in health spending is vital for planning and reducing reliance on out-of-pocket (OOP) expenses. The current study analyzed health expenditure patterns in India and forecasted future trends and patterns until 2035.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>Data on health expenditure in India from 2000 to 2019 was collected from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) iLibrary and National Health Accounts 2019 databases. Gross domestic product (GDP) data from the World Bank was also utilized. Descriptive statistics analyzed the composition and pattern, while the exponential smoothing model forecasted future health expenditures.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>The findings revealed that expenditure made by OOP is the primary health financing source, followed by government and pre-paid private spending. The percentage of GDP allocated to total health expenditure remains stable, while the per capita health expenditure fluctuates. Variations in expenditure among states are observed, with Karnataka relying heavily on pre-paid private coverage. Future projections suggest a decline in per capita and total health expenditure as a share of GDP, with a slight increase in the government’s share. Pre-paid private expenditure per capita and OOP health expenditure as a share of the total is projected to remain relatively constant but still high in absolute terms.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>The study highlights variations in health spending in India, characterized by high OOP spending, limited public coverage, and a need for investments, and reforms to improve healthcare access and equity.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":73164,"journal":{"name":"Global health journal (Amsterdam, Netherlands)","volume":"8 2","pages":"Pages 58-66"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2414644724000228/pdfft?md5=f3fd43ea7276dd00f388f8c9a116c18e&pid=1-s2.0-S2414644724000228-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Global health journal (Amsterdam, Netherlands)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2414644724000228","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Objectives
Understanding past trends and forecasting future changes in health spending is vital for planning and reducing reliance on out-of-pocket (OOP) expenses. The current study analyzed health expenditure patterns in India and forecasted future trends and patterns until 2035.
Methods
Data on health expenditure in India from 2000 to 2019 was collected from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) iLibrary and National Health Accounts 2019 databases. Gross domestic product (GDP) data from the World Bank was also utilized. Descriptive statistics analyzed the composition and pattern, while the exponential smoothing model forecasted future health expenditures.
Results
The findings revealed that expenditure made by OOP is the primary health financing source, followed by government and pre-paid private spending. The percentage of GDP allocated to total health expenditure remains stable, while the per capita health expenditure fluctuates. Variations in expenditure among states are observed, with Karnataka relying heavily on pre-paid private coverage. Future projections suggest a decline in per capita and total health expenditure as a share of GDP, with a slight increase in the government’s share. Pre-paid private expenditure per capita and OOP health expenditure as a share of the total is projected to remain relatively constant but still high in absolute terms.
Conclusion
The study highlights variations in health spending in India, characterized by high OOP spending, limited public coverage, and a need for investments, and reforms to improve healthcare access and equity.