STAPLE: A land use/-cover change model concerning spatiotemporal dependency and properties related to landscape evolution

Abstract

Cellular automata (CA) based models are practical tools to simulate the spatiotemporal landscape evolution induced by the land use/-cover change (LUCC). Existing models are struggling to comprehensively handle the spatiotemporal driving relationships amid the nonlinear LUCC process. Besides, the landscape patterns are not considered in most models, making them struggled to support the development strategies. Aiming at overcoming these obstacles, a novel land use/-cover change model concerning spatiotemporal dependency and properties related to landscape evolution (STAPLE) is proposed in this paper. A potential generating module establishing the nonlinear spatiotemporal driving relationship and a spatial allocating module employing a landscape-based CA are integrated for realistic LUCC simulations. As a case study, the proposed model is applied in Zhengzhou, China to assess its performance. It is indicated that the STAPLE model achieves a higher simulation accuracy, and the landscape properties are effectively manipulated. It provides a reproducible tool for policy-makers to explore a low-ecological-risk landscape under different future scenarios and achieve sustainable developments.