Predicting users’ future interests on social networks: A reference framework

Abstract

Predicting users’ interests on social networks is gaining attention due to its potential to cater customized information and services to the end users. Although previous works have extensively explored how users’ interests can be modeled on social networks, there has been limited investigation into the prediction of users’ future interests. The objective of our work in this paper is to empirically study the effectiveness of different sets of features based on users’ past social interactions, historical interests and their temporal dynamics to predict their interests over a collection of future-yet-unobserved topics. More specifically, we introduce and formalize the features for interest prediction in four categories: user-based, topical, explicit user-topic engagement, and friends’ influence. We further explore the influence of temporality by augmenting features with information pertaining to users’ historical interests and social connections. We model the task of future interest prediction as a learning-to-rank problem where different features and their related categories are ranked based on their relevance and performance in interest prediction, and investigate the efficiency of different features individually and comparatively for predicting the future interest of users with different activity levels in social networks over on unobserved topics. After conducting experiments on a real-world dataset sourced from Twitter, we have identified several noteworthy findings: (1) relevance feature in the category of past explicit user-topic engagement is the strongest indicator for predicting user’s future interest across all user groups, with an observed 8.57% decrease in NDCG and an 8.95% decrease in MAP when it is removed in the ablation study. (2) the observation of an 8.06% decrease in NDCG and a 7.3% decrease in MAP, when topical features such as popularity, freshness, and coherence are removed in the ablation study, highlights their significance as among the strongest indicators for users’ future interest, particularly for low-active users. (3) although temporal features show a clear positive impact across user groups with varying levels of activity (resulting in a 4.5% decrease in NDCG and a 7.3% decrease in MAP when removed in the ablation study), the temporal topical features do not demonstrate a significant positive effect, and 4) The removal of user-specific characteristics such as influence and personality traits in the ablation study reveals their significant impact in predicting future interest over cold topics, reflected by a 5.49% decrease in NDCG and a 5.72% decrease in MAP. Our findings make significant contributions to the field of future interest prediction, offering valuable insights and practical implications for various applications in social network analysis.