{"title":"The shale oil boom and the US economy: Spillovers and time‐varying effects","authors":"Hilde C. Bjørnland, Julia Skretting","doi":"10.1002/jae.3059","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We provide new evidence that the transmission of oil price shocks to the US economy has changed with the shale oil boom. To show this, we develop a time‐varying parameter factor‐augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model with a large data environment of state‐level, industry, and aggregate US data. The model effectively captures potential spillovers between oil and non‐oil industries, as well as variation over time. Specified in this way, we find that investment, income, industrial production, and (non‐oil) employment in most oil‐producing and some manufacturing‐intensive US states increase following an oil‐specific shock—effects that were not present before the shale oil boom.","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3059","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
We provide new evidence that the transmission of oil price shocks to the US economy has changed with the shale oil boom. To show this, we develop a time‐varying parameter factor‐augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model with a large data environment of state‐level, industry, and aggregate US data. The model effectively captures potential spillovers between oil and non‐oil industries, as well as variation over time. Specified in this way, we find that investment, income, industrial production, and (non‐oil) employment in most oil‐producing and some manufacturing‐intensive US states increase following an oil‐specific shock—effects that were not present before the shale oil boom.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.
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