{"title":"Modelling Strategies in Sports","authors":"Ricardo Manuel Santos","doi":"10.1007/s11293-024-09800-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper presents a model that examines sports teams’ strategic choices about the extent of offense/defense to adopt in competing with other teams. The mathematical formulation adopted permits the derivation of a team’s optimal strategy under different game scenarios (current score and time left to play), and team characteristics (playing at home or away, and each team’s quality). A novel feature of the model is that teams can choose a strategy at several moments in the game, thereby incorporating a comprehensive dynamic element. The National Hockey League is used as an application. Optimal coaching behavior is derived in this setting, and the impact of rule changes is assessed. The study found that removing the overtime period, disproportionally increasing the rewards for a win, or removing the point that is currently awarded to the team that loses the shootout at the end of overtime, would all lead to the adoption of more offensive strategies during the game. That outcome is aligned with higher fan interest and team revenue.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46061,"journal":{"name":"ATLANTIC ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":"52 2-3","pages":"57 - 66"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11293-024-09800-4.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ATLANTIC ECONOMIC JOURNAL","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11293-024-09800-4","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
This paper presents a model that examines sports teams’ strategic choices about the extent of offense/defense to adopt in competing with other teams. The mathematical formulation adopted permits the derivation of a team’s optimal strategy under different game scenarios (current score and time left to play), and team characteristics (playing at home or away, and each team’s quality). A novel feature of the model is that teams can choose a strategy at several moments in the game, thereby incorporating a comprehensive dynamic element. The National Hockey League is used as an application. Optimal coaching behavior is derived in this setting, and the impact of rule changes is assessed. The study found that removing the overtime period, disproportionally increasing the rewards for a win, or removing the point that is currently awarded to the team that loses the shootout at the end of overtime, would all lead to the adoption of more offensive strategies during the game. That outcome is aligned with higher fan interest and team revenue.
期刊介绍：
The Atlantic Economic Journal (AEJ) has an international reputation for excellent articles in all interest areas, without regard to fields or methodological preferences. Founded in 1973 by the International Atlantic Economic Society, a need was identified for increased communication among scholars from different countries. For over 30 years, the AEJ has continuously sought articles that traced some of the most critical economic changes and developments to occur on the global level. The journal''s goal is to facilitate and synthesize economic research across nations to encourage cross-fertilization of ideas and scholarly research. Contributors include some of the world''s most respected economists and financial specialists, including Nobel laureates and leading government officials. AEJ welcomes both theoretical and empirical articles, as well as public policy papers. All manuscripts are submitted to a double-blind peer review process. In addition to formal publication of full-length articles, the AEJ provides an opportunity for less formal communication through its Anthology section. A small point may not be worthy of a full-length, formal paper but is important enough to warrant dissemination to other researchers. Research in progress may be of interest to other scholars in the field. A research approach ending in negative results needs to be shared to save others similar pitfalls. The Anthology section has been established to facilitate these forms of communication. Anthologies provide a means by which short manuscripts of less than 500 words can quickly appear in the AEJ. All submissions are formally reviewed by the Board of Editors. Officially cited as: Atl Econ J
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