Effects of rainfall pattern classification methods on the probability estimation of typhoon-induced debris-flow occurrence

Abstract

The frequent occurrence of typhoons causes geological disasters, such as debris flow and landslide, by bringing extreme rainfall events. Due to the lack of data collection on extreme rainfall events caused by typhoons, the relationship between rainfall patterns and debris flow has not been deeply studied. Therefore, based on hourly rainfall data during typhoons in Wenzhou from 1980 to 2017, this study used a variety of methods to classify the rainfall events and analyze the characteristics of typhoon-induced rainfall events and their impacts on the probability of debris-flow occurrence. Three classification techniques, including dynamic time warping, K-Means cluster, and self-organizing maps, are applied with two ways to normalize rainfall records, including dimensionless rainfall density curves and dimensionless rainfall cumulation curves, for extracting rainfall patterns from recorded 1 h rainfall data. The rainfall patterns are then used for the estimation of typhoon-induced debris-flow occurrence probability. Results show that different methods present different rainfall patterns. The probability of debris flows varies with different patterns of rainfall events. The research results help deepen the understanding of typhoon rainfall events and debris-flow disaster prevention in the region and contribute to regional flood control and disaster reduction.