Testing dynamic correlations and nonlinearity in bivariate time series through information measures and surrogate data analysis

Abstract

The increasing availability of time series data depicting the evolution of physical system properties has prompted the development of methods focused on extracting insights into the system behavior over time, discerning whether it stems from deterministic or stochastic dynamical systems. Surrogate data testing plays a crucial role in this process by facilitating robust statistical assessments. This ensures that the observed results are not mere occurrences by chance, but genuinely reflect the inherent characteristics of the underlying system. The initial process involves formulating a null hypothesis, which is tested using surrogate data in cases where assumptions about the underlying distributions are absent. A discriminating statistic is then computed for both the original data and each surrogate data set. Significantly deviating values between the original data and the surrogate data ensemble lead to the rejection of the null hypothesis. In this work, we present various surrogate methods designed to assess specific statistical properties in random processes. Specifically, we introduce methods for evaluating the presence of autodependencies and nonlinear dynamics within individual processes, using Information Storage as a discriminating statistic. Additionally, methods are introduced for detecting coupling and nonlinearities in bivariate processes, employing the Mutual Information Rate for this purpose. The surrogate methods introduced are first tested through simulations involving univariate and bivariate processes exhibiting both linear and nonlinear dynamics. Then, they are applied to physiological time series of Heart Period (RR intervals) and respiratory flow (RESP) variability measured during spontaneous and paced breathing. Simulations demonstrated that the proposed methods effectively identify essential dynamical features of stochastic systems. The real data application showed that paced breathing, at low breathing rate, increases the predictability of the individual dynamics of RR and RESP and dampens nonlinearity in their coupled dynamics.