Measuring real money demand in Cambodia: an ARDL approach to cointegration

Abstract

The findings obtained through the ARDL approach to cointegration indicate that real income, consumer price index, and interest rate are cointegrated with real money demand. In terms of the estimated results derived from the long-run model, it is observed that real income has a statistically significant positive impact on real money demand, while the general price level and interest rate have a negative impact. The short-run dynamic model, known as the error correction model, demonstrates that all explanatory variables collectively account for the growth rate of real money balances. In the short-run, the growth rate of real income exhibits a positive relationship with the demand for real money, whereas the inflation rate and changes in interest rate have a significant negative effect on the demand for real money balances. The estimated slope coefficient of the short-run dynamic model, which measures the speed of adjustment, is projected to be 60.67%. This outcome suggests that the real money balance model takes no more than two quarters to adjust towards long-run equilibrium in response to short-run dynamic shocks. Stability tests, such as the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests, indicate that the real money demand function in Cambodia remains stable in the long-term. The findings derived from this study provide empirical evidence in favor of the quantity theory of money.