What Drives U.S. Import Price Inflation?

M. Amiti, Oleg Itskhoki, David E. Weinstein
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Abstract

Inflation has risen sharply in many countries since the COVID-19 outbreak, and economists have debated the underlying causes. In this paper, we examine the drivers of the global import price inflation, which peaked at approximately 11 percent a year. We find that a common global component closely tracks movements in aggregate US import prices until late 2022. Afterward, idiosyncratic US demand shocks started to dominate.
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美国进口价格通胀的驱动因素是什么?
自 COVID-19 爆发以来,许多国家的通货膨胀率急剧上升,经济学家对其根本原因争论不休。在本文中,我们研究了全球进口价格通胀的驱动因素,其峰值约为每年 11%。我们发现,直到 2022 年末,一个共同的全球组成部分一直密切跟踪着美国进口总价格的变动。之后,美国的特殊需求冲击开始占据主导地位。
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