A remaining useful life prediction algorithm incorporating real-time and integrated model for hidden actuator degradation

Abstract

This paper proposed a prediction algorithm for the degraded actuator taking into account the impact of estimation error of hidden index in the closed-loop system. To this end, a unified prediction framework is established to evaluate the hidden degradation information and recursively update the degradation model parameters simultaneously. The advantage is that the prediction framework can comprehensively compensate the estimation error of hidden degradation index caused by system uncertainty. To jointly estimate the degradation information in avoidance of the impact of system uncertainty, a modified adaptive Kalman filter is designed, and the proof of stability is provided. With the priori estimate from the filter, the degradation model parameters are updated by the inverse filtering probability based on Bayes’ theorem. It is followed by the computation of the remaining useful life (RUL) prediction utilizing aforementioned hidden degradation information and the latest degradation model. The effectiveness of the proposed RUL prediction algorithm is demonstrated by the degraded actuator in the continuous casting process.