Global spatiotemporal distributions of lymphoma from 1990 to 2019: A Joinpoint regression analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2019, and projections until 2044

Abstract

Lymphoma is a dissimilar collection of malignant neoplasms arising from the clonal propagation of lymphocytes. It is conventionally classified into two categories: Hodgkin lymphoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal patterns in the incidence of lymphoma worldwide over the past few decades and forecast the future trends from 2020 to 2044. Data on HL and NHL were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. In an effort to estimate the incidence rate trend, the Joinpoint regression analysis model was exploited. What's more, to project the disease burden by 2044, the Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was employed. In 2019, higher incidence rates were observed in males and the elderly for both subtypes. Over the last three decades, a significant decline in the age-standardized incidence rate of HL was observed, while NHL has shown an increasing trend. By 2044, the age-standardized incidence rate of HL is anticipated to decrease in males and increase in females, while that of NHL is expected to rise. This study presents a new assessment of the spatiotemporal distributions of lymphoma. Significant emphasis should be placed on the effective management and long-term monitoring of patients to mitigate the potential future impact of the disease.