Single landslide risk assessment considering rainfall-induced landslide hazard and the vulnerability of disaster-bearing body

Abstract

Quantitative calculation of single landslide risk has great significance for the prevention and treatment of landslides, through analysing the slope stability under different rainfall recurrence periods. In this study, the rainfall of the past 40 years in Xun'wu County of China is counted and the rainfall during the return periods of 10, 20 and 50 years are calculated to form three different rainfall conditions. Then, the stability of Cheng'nan landslide in Xun'wu County is calculated by the Geo-Studio 2007 software, and the probability of landslide occurrence is obtained by Monte Carlo theory under these three conditions. Next, the field investigation is employed to obtain the statistical results of the buildings and personnel in the affected area of Cheng'nan landslide. Finally, the risk of economic loss and casualty under the three conditions are calculated. It was demonstrated that: (1) Under the three conditions, the safety factor decreased gradually, the rate of decrease was slower in the first 3 days and faster in the middle period and there was still a downward trend after the end of the rain. (2) The probability of landslide occurrence during the rainfall return periods of 10, 20 and 50 years were 1.77%, 2.97% and 1.61%, respectively. Besides, the risk index of landslide was the highest under the condition of 20-years rainfall return period. (3) The economic loss risk and casualty risk in the rainfall return periods of 10, 20 and 50 years were 122,700-yuan and 4.11 people, 205,900-yuan and 6.89 people, as well as 11,600-yuan and 3.74 people, respectively.