Pre-test Prediction of Non-ischemic Cardiomyopathies using Time-Series EHR Data.

Abstract

Clinical imaging is an important diagnostic test to diagnose non-ischemic cardiomyopathies (NICM). However, accurate interpretation of imaging studies often requires readers to review patient histories, a time consuming and tedious task. We propose to use time-series analysis to predict the most likely NICMs using longitudinal electronic health records (EHR) as a pseudo-summary of EHR records. Time-series formatted EHR data can provide temporality information important towards accurate prediction of disease. Specifically, we leverage ICD-10 codes and various recurrent neural network architectures for predictive modeling. We trained our models on a large cohort of NICM patients who underwent cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) and a smaller cohort undergoing echocardiogram. The performance of the proposed technique achieved good micro-area under the curve (0.8357), F1 score (0.5708) and precision at 3 (0.8078) across all models for cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) but only moderate performance for transthoracic echocardiogram (TTE) of 0.6938, 0.4399 and 0.5864 respectively. We show that our model has the potential to provide accurate pre-test differential diagnosis, thereby potentially reducing clerical burden on physicians.