Implied parameter estimation for jump diffusion option pricing models: Pricing accuracy and the role of loss and evaluation functions

IF 3.7 4区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Journal of Commodity Markets Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI:10.1016/j.jcomm.2024.100408
Jimmy E. Hilliard , Jitka Hilliard , Julie T.D. Ngo
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Abstract

There is extensive literature on problems involved in estimating implied parameters in the Merton Jump Diffusion model. Using simulated data, we use weighted non-linear least squares to estimate implied parameters in the four parameter jump diffusion model (JD) and in an eight parameter jump diffusion model with convenience yield (JDC). We find reliable and accurate implied parameter estimates for the JD model but biased and unreliable estimates for some parameters in the JDC model. However, for both models we estimate accurate option prices, usually within several basis points. We also use Bitcoin real data to estimate parameters and test the out-of-sample performance of the JDC model.

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跃迁扩散期权定价模型的隐含参数估计:定价准确性以及损失和评估函数的作用
有关默顿跳跃扩散模型隐含参数估计问题的文献很多。利用模拟数据,我们使用加权非线性最小二乘法估算了四参数跳跃扩散模型(JD)和八参数跳跃扩散模型(JDC)的隐含参数。我们发现 JD 模型的隐含参数估计准确可靠,但 JDC 模型的某些参数估计有偏差且不可靠。不过,对于这两种模型,我们都能估算出准确的期权价格,通常在几个基点之内。我们还使用了比特币真实数据来估计参数,并测试了 JDC 模型的样本外性能。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.70
自引率
2.40%
发文量
53
期刊介绍: The purpose of the journal is also to stimulate international dialog among academics, industry participants, traders, investors, and policymakers with mutual interests in commodity markets. The mandate for the journal is to present ongoing work within commodity economics and finance. Topics can be related to financialization of commodity markets; pricing, hedging, and risk analysis of commodity derivatives; risk premia in commodity markets; real option analysis for commodity project investment and production; portfolio allocation including commodities; forecasting in commodity markets; corporate finance for commodity-exposed corporations; econometric/statistical analysis of commodity markets; organization of commodity markets; regulation of commodity markets; local and global commodity trading; and commodity supply chains. Commodity markets in this context are energy markets (including renewables), metal markets, mineral markets, agricultural markets, livestock and fish markets, markets for weather derivatives, emission markets, shipping markets, water, and related markets. This interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary journal will cover all commodity markets and is thus relevant for a broad audience. Commodity markets are not only of academic interest but also highly relevant for many practitioners, including asset managers, industrial managers, investment bankers, risk managers, and also policymakers in governments, central banks, and supranational institutions.
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