The resilience of Tunisian industrial exports during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from an ARDL approach

Abstract

This paper attempts to study to what extent Tunisian industrial exports have been resilient during the COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose, we tested for structural breaks using the Bai-Perron test and monthly data on industrial exports from January 2014 to December 2022. Using the autoregressive distributed lag model, we show that the structural break detected during the pandemic had no negative impact on industrial exports. Besides, the effects of the stringency index had, in the long run, an insignificant impact on Tunisian industrial exports, implying that the latter have proven resilient against the global health crisis. Furthermore, our empirical findings reveal that, in the long run, investment in totally exporting industries and industrial production have a positive impact on industrial exports, while the real effective exchange rate has a negative impact. The present study has many implications, mainly increasing confidence in Tunisia as a resilient economy during crises. It also provides evidence that geographic proximity and resilient trading partners can play a role in mitigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and contributing to a more effective response in times of crisis.