The market reaction of energy companies to the announcement of the Russian–Ukrainian invasion

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to empirically analyze the market response of energy companies to the Russian-Ukrainian invasion. Additionally, it examines the comparison of market reactions between companies in NATO member countries and non-member countries.

Design/methodology/approach

This study utilizes a sample of 1,511 energy sector companies. To achieve the research objectives, two methods are employed. First, an event study is used to analyze the market reaction using Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) to the announcement of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 (event day) within an event window of (−30, +30). Second, a cross-sectional analysis is conducted to compare the responses of companies in NATO member countries with those in non-member countries.

Findings

The findings of this study reveal that energy companies worldwide reacted positively both before and after the announcement of the invasion, with significant reactions observed in companies from the Americas, Europe, and Asia & Pacific regions. However, the Middle East and Africa markets did not show significant reactions. Furthermore, the study indicates that most developed and emerging markets responded positively, likely due to the increase in energy commodity prices during the war. Moreover, the market reaction of companies in NATO member countries was stronger compared to other markets.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the existing literature by being the first to examine the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the energy sector, while categorizing markets as developed, emerging, and frontier. It also specifically explores the market reaction of energy companies in NATO member countries, providing unique insights into the differential responses within the energy sector.

研究目的: 本研究擬以經驗及觀察為依據, 去分析能源公司對俄羅斯–烏克蘭侵略行為的市場反應。研究亦擬進行關於北約成員國內的能源公司及非成員國內的能源公司的市場反應的比較研究。

研究設計/方法/理念: 研究使用的樣本為1511間能源領域內的公司。研究人員為能達到研究目標, 採用了兩個方法。首先, 他們使用事件研究法進行有關的研究。具體地說, 他們以累積異常報酬率, 來分析在 (−30, +30) 的事件視窗之內, 能源公司對俄羅斯於2022年2月24日 (事發日) 入侵烏克蘭的公告的市場反應。其次, 研究人員以橫向分析法, 就北約成員國內的能源公司及非成員國內的能源公司的反應進行比較研究。

研究結果: 研究結果顯示, 全球的能源公司於侵略行為公告前後均有正面的反應;而反應較為顯著的公司均來自美洲、歐洲和亞洲及太平洋地區。唯中東和非洲市場均沒有顯著的反應。研究結果亦顯示, 大多數已發展市場和新興市場, 均有正面的反應, 這很可能是因為於戰爭期間, 能源商品價格上升所致。再者, 北約成員國內的公司的市場反應較其他市場強烈。

研究的原創性: 本研究率先以已開發市場、新興市場和邊境市場的市場分類, 去探討俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭對能源部門的影響;就此, 本研究對現有文獻作出了貢獻。研究亦特意探索了北約成員國內能源公司及非成員國內的能源公司兩者的市場反應, 這給我們獨特的啟示, 以能了解能源領域內各種不同的反應。