Projecting traffic flows for road-based passenger transport in Europe for the analysis of climate impact

IF 5.1 3区 工程技术 Q1 TRANSPORTATION European Transport Research Review Pub Date : 2024-06-05 DOI:10.1186/s12544-024-00652-2
Nina Thomsen, Angelika Schulz
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Abstract

Road-based transport is a significant contributor to global transport emissions of greenhouse gases and local pollutants, thus contributing to the environmental impact of the mobility of people and goods. In order to develop strategies to mitigate this impact, it is necessary to build reliable emission inventories that include sector-specific emissions. Furthermore, the methods for creating these inventories should be applicable for forecasts and scenario calculations to facilitate the evaluation of pathways towards a more sustainable transport system. The study at hand proposes a model-based framework to predict travel demand and its spatial distribution for a bottom-up calculation of road transport emissions in Europe. With this framework, it is possible to calculate emissions based on the road network structure, traffic flows and vehicle types. In order to demonstrate the applicability of the framework for scenario calculations, it is applied to three exemplary scenarios where population data is modified. With the developed methodology, a tool for the large-scale assessment of emissions from road transport is provided, which is able to simulate the impact of socio-economic and economic changes on these emissions.
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预测欧洲公路客运交通流量以分析气候影响
公路运输是全球运输中温室气体和本地污染物排放的重要来源,从而加剧了人员和货物流动对环境的影响。为了制定减轻这种影响的战略,有必要建立可靠的排放清单,其中包括具体部门的排放量。此外,建立这些清单的方法应适用于预测和情景计算,以便于评估实现更可持续交通系统的途径。本研究提出了一个基于模型的框架,用于预测出行需求及其空间分布,以自下而上地计算欧洲道路交通的排放量。有了这个框架,就可以根据道路网络结构、交通流量和车辆类型计算排放量。为了证明该框架在情景计算中的适用性,我们将其应用于三个修改了人口数据的示例情景。通过所开发的方法,提供了一种大规模评估道路交通排放的工具,能够模拟社会经济和经济变化对这些排放的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
European Transport Research Review
European Transport Research Review Engineering-Mechanical Engineering
CiteScore
8.60
自引率
4.70%
发文量
49
审稿时长
13 weeks
期刊介绍: European Transport Research Review (ETRR) is a peer-reviewed open access journal publishing original high-quality scholarly research and developments in areas related to transportation science, technologies, policy and practice. Established in 2008 by the European Conference of Transport Research Institutes (ECTRI), the Journal provides researchers and practitioners around the world with an authoritative forum for the dissemination and critical discussion of new ideas and methodologies that originate in, or are of special interest to, the European transport research community. The journal is unique in its field, as it covers all modes of transport and addresses both the engineering and the social science perspective, offering a truly multidisciplinary platform for researchers, practitioners, engineers and policymakers. ETRR is aimed at a readership including researchers, practitioners in the design and operation of transportation systems, and policymakers at the international, national, regional and local levels.
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