{"title":"Projecting traffic flows for road-based passenger transport in Europe for the analysis of climate impact","authors":"Nina Thomsen, Angelika Schulz","doi":"10.1186/s12544-024-00652-2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Road-based transport is a significant contributor to global transport emissions of greenhouse gases and local pollutants, thus contributing to the environmental impact of the mobility of people and goods. In order to develop strategies to mitigate this impact, it is necessary to build reliable emission inventories that include sector-specific emissions. Furthermore, the methods for creating these inventories should be applicable for forecasts and scenario calculations to facilitate the evaluation of pathways towards a more sustainable transport system. The study at hand proposes a model-based framework to predict travel demand and its spatial distribution for a bottom-up calculation of road transport emissions in Europe. With this framework, it is possible to calculate emissions based on the road network structure, traffic flows and vehicle types. In order to demonstrate the applicability of the framework for scenario calculations, it is applied to three exemplary scenarios where population data is modified. With the developed methodology, a tool for the large-scale assessment of emissions from road transport is provided, which is able to simulate the impact of socio-economic and economic changes on these emissions.","PeriodicalId":12079,"journal":{"name":"European Transport Research Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"European Transport Research Review","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-024-00652-2","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"TRANSPORTATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Road-based transport is a significant contributor to global transport emissions of greenhouse gases and local pollutants, thus contributing to the environmental impact of the mobility of people and goods. In order to develop strategies to mitigate this impact, it is necessary to build reliable emission inventories that include sector-specific emissions. Furthermore, the methods for creating these inventories should be applicable for forecasts and scenario calculations to facilitate the evaluation of pathways towards a more sustainable transport system. The study at hand proposes a model-based framework to predict travel demand and its spatial distribution for a bottom-up calculation of road transport emissions in Europe. With this framework, it is possible to calculate emissions based on the road network structure, traffic flows and vehicle types. In order to demonstrate the applicability of the framework for scenario calculations, it is applied to three exemplary scenarios where population data is modified. With the developed methodology, a tool for the large-scale assessment of emissions from road transport is provided, which is able to simulate the impact of socio-economic and economic changes on these emissions.
期刊介绍:
European Transport Research Review (ETRR) is a peer-reviewed open access journal publishing original high-quality scholarly research and developments in areas related to transportation science, technologies, policy and practice. Established in 2008 by the European Conference of Transport Research Institutes (ECTRI), the Journal provides researchers and practitioners around the world with an authoritative forum for the dissemination and critical discussion of new ideas and methodologies that originate in, or are of special interest to, the European transport research community. The journal is unique in its field, as it covers all modes of transport and addresses both the engineering and the social science perspective, offering a truly multidisciplinary platform for researchers, practitioners, engineers and policymakers. ETRR is aimed at a readership including researchers, practitioners in the design and operation of transportation systems, and policymakers at the international, national, regional and local levels.