Last Millennium Volcanic Forcing and Climate Response using SO2 Emissions

IF 3.8 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Climate of The Past Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI:10.5194/egusphere-2024-1322
Lauren R. Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Andrew P. Schurer, Nathan Luke Abraham, Lucie J. Lücke, Rob Wilson, Kevin Anchukaitis, Gabriele Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Myriam Khodri, Kohei Yoshida
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Abstract

Abstract. Climate variability in the last millennium (past 1000 years) is dominated by the effects of large-magnitude volcanic eruptions; however, a long-standing mismatch exists between model-simulated and tree-ring derived surface cooling. Accounting for the self-limiting effects of large sulfur dioxide (SO2) injections and the limitations in tree-ring records such as lagged responses due to biological memory reconciles some of the discrepancy, but uncertainties remain particularly for the largest tropical eruptions. The representation of volcanic forcing in the latest generation of climate models has improved significantly, but most models prescribe the aerosol optical properties rather than using SO2 emissions directly and including interactions between the aerosol, chemistry and dynamics. Here, we use the UK Earth System Model (UKESM) to simulate the climate of the last millennium (1250–1850) using volcanic SO2 emissions. Averaged across all large-magnitude eruptions, we find similar Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer cooling compared with other last millennium climate simulations from the Paleo Model Intercomparison Project Phase 4, run with both SO2 emissions and prescribed forcing, and a continued overestimation of surface cooling compared with tree-ring reconstructions. However, for the largest-magnitude tropical eruptions in 1257 (Mt. Samalas) and 1815 (Mt. Tambora), some models including UKESM1 suggest a smaller NH summer cooling that is in better agreement with tree-ring records. In UKESM1, we find that the simulated volcanic forcing differs considerably from the PMIP4 dataset used in models without interactive aerosol schemes, with marked differences in the hemispheric spread of the aerosol, resulting in lower forcing in the NH when SO2 emissions are used. Our results suggest that for the largest tropical eruptions, the spatial distribution of aerosol can account for some of the discrepancies between model-simulated and tree-ring derived cooling. Further work should therefore focus on better resolving the spatial distribution of aerosol forcing for past eruptions.
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利用二氧化硫排放的最近千年火山强迫和气候响应
摘要上一个千年(过去 1000 年)的气候多变性主要受大尺度火山爆发的影响;然而,模型模拟的地表降温与树环推算的地表降温之间存在着长期的不匹配。考虑到大量二氧化硫(SO2)注入的自我限制效应和树环记录的局限性(如生物记忆导致的滞后反应),可以调和部分差异,但仍存在不确定性,尤其是在最大的热带火山喷发方面。最新一代气候模式对火山强迫的表述有了很大改进,但大多数模式都规定了气溶胶的光学特性,而不是直接使用二氧化硫排放,也不包括气溶胶、化学和动力学之间的相互作用。在这里,我们使用英国地球系统模式(UKESM),利用火山二氧化硫排放模拟上一个千年(1250-1850 年)的气候。通过对所有大尺度火山爆发进行平均,我们发现北半球夏季的降温与古生物模型相互比较项目第四阶段的其他上千年气候模拟(同时使用二氧化硫排放和规定强迫)相似,而且与树环重建相比,地表降温持续被高估。然而,对于 1257 年(萨马拉斯山)和 1815 年(坦博拉山)最大强度的热带火山爆发,包括 UKESM1 在内的一些模式表明,北半球夏季降温幅度较小,与树环记录更为吻合。在 UKESM1 中,我们发现模拟的火山强迫与没有交互气溶胶方案的模式中使用的 PMIP4 数据集有很大不同,气溶胶的半球扩散有明显差异,导致使用二氧化硫排放时北半球的强迫较低。我们的研究结果表明,对于最大的热带火山爆发,气溶胶的空间分布可以解释模式模拟和树环推算冷却之间的一些差异。因此,进一步的工作应侧重于更好地解析气溶胶对过去火山爆发的影响的空间分布。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Climate of The Past
Climate of The Past 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
7.40
自引率
14.00%
发文量
120
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Climate of the Past (CP) is a not-for-profit international scientific journal dedicated to the publication and discussion of research articles, short communications, and review papers on the climate history of the Earth. CP covers all temporal scales of climate change and variability, from geological time through to multidecadal studies of the last century. Studies focusing mainly on present and future climate are not within scope. The main subject areas are the following: reconstructions of past climate based on instrumental and historical data as well as proxy data from marine and terrestrial (including ice) archives; development and validation of new proxies, improvements of the precision and accuracy of proxy data; theoretical and empirical studies of processes in and feedback mechanisms between all climate system components in relation to past climate change on all space scales and timescales; simulation of past climate and model-based interpretation of palaeoclimate data for a better understanding of present and future climate variability and climate change.
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