Markus Adloff, Frerk Pöppelmeier, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Thomas F. Stocker, Fortunat Joos
{"title":"Multiple thermal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation thresholds in the intermediate complexity model Bern3D","authors":"Markus Adloff, Frerk Pöppelmeier, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Thomas F. Stocker, Fortunat Joos","doi":"10.5194/cp-20-1233-2024","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Variations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are associated with Northern Hemispheric and global climate shifts. Thermal thresholds of the AMOC have been found in a hierarchy of numerical circulation models, and there is an increasing body of evidence for the existence of highly sensitive AMOC modes where small perturbations can cause disproportionately large circulation and hence climatic changes. We discovered such thresholds in simulations with the intermediate-complexity Earth system model Bern3D, which is highly computationally efficient, allowing for studying this non-linear behaviour systematically over entire glacial cycles. By simulating the AMOC under different magnitudes of orbitally paced changes in radiative forcing over the last 788 000 years, we show that up to three thermal thresholds are crossed during glacial cycles in Bern3D and that thermal forcing could have destabilised the AMOC repeatedly. We present the circulation and sea ice patterns that characterise the stable circulation modes between which this model oscillates during a glacial cycle and assess how often and when thermal forcing could have preconditioned the Bern3D AMOC for abrupt shifts over the last 788 kyr.","PeriodicalId":10332,"journal":{"name":"Climate of The Past","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Climate of The Past","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1233-2024","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Abstract. Variations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are associated with Northern Hemispheric and global climate shifts. Thermal thresholds of the AMOC have been found in a hierarchy of numerical circulation models, and there is an increasing body of evidence for the existence of highly sensitive AMOC modes where small perturbations can cause disproportionately large circulation and hence climatic changes. We discovered such thresholds in simulations with the intermediate-complexity Earth system model Bern3D, which is highly computationally efficient, allowing for studying this non-linear behaviour systematically over entire glacial cycles. By simulating the AMOC under different magnitudes of orbitally paced changes in radiative forcing over the last 788 000 years, we show that up to three thermal thresholds are crossed during glacial cycles in Bern3D and that thermal forcing could have destabilised the AMOC repeatedly. We present the circulation and sea ice patterns that characterise the stable circulation modes between which this model oscillates during a glacial cycle and assess how often and when thermal forcing could have preconditioned the Bern3D AMOC for abrupt shifts over the last 788 kyr.
期刊介绍:
Climate of the Past (CP) is a not-for-profit international scientific journal dedicated to the publication and discussion of research articles, short communications, and review papers on the climate history of the Earth. CP covers all temporal scales of climate change and variability, from geological time through to multidecadal studies of the last century. Studies focusing mainly on present and future climate are not within scope.
The main subject areas are the following:
reconstructions of past climate based on instrumental and historical data as well as proxy data from marine and terrestrial (including ice) archives;
development and validation of new proxies, improvements of the precision and accuracy of proxy data;
theoretical and empirical studies of processes in and feedback mechanisms between all climate system components in relation to past climate change on all space scales and timescales;
simulation of past climate and model-based interpretation of palaeoclimate data for a better understanding of present and future climate variability and climate change.