Enhancing Assessments of Coastal Wetland Migration Potential with Sea-level Rise: Accounting for Uncertainty in Elevation Data, Tidal Data, and Future Water Levels
Nicholas M. Enwright, Michael J. Osland, Hana R. Thurman, Claire E. McHenry, William C. Vervaeke, Brett A. Patton, Davina L. Passeri, Jason M. Stoker, Richard H. Day, Bethanie M. Simons
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Sea-level rise rates are predicted to surpass rates of wetland vertical adjustment in the coming decades in many areas, increasing the potential for wetland submergence. Information on where wetland migration is possible can help natural resource managers for planning land acquisition or enhancing habitat connectivity to bolster adaptation of coastal wetlands to rising seas. Elevation-based models of wetland migration are often hampered with uncertainty associated with ground surface elevation, current water levels (i.e., tides and extreme water levels), and future water levels from sea-level rise. Here, we developed an approach that involved digital elevation model error reduction and the use of Monte Carlo simulations that utilize uncertainty assumptions regarding elevation error, contemporary water levels, and future sea levels to identify potential wetland migration areas. Our analyses were developed for Duvall and Nassau Counties in northeastern Florida (USA). We focus on the migration of regularly oceanic-flooded wetlands (i.e., flooded by oceanic water daily) and irregularly oceanic-flooded wetlands (i.e., flooded by oceanic water less frequently than daily). For two relative sea-level rise scenarios based on the 0.5 m and the 1.5 m global mean sea-level rise scenarios, we quantified migration by wetland flooding frequency class and identified land cover and land use types that are vulnerable to future exposure to oceanic waters. The variability in total coverage and relative coverage of wetland migration from our results highlights how topography and accelerated sea-level rise interact. Our wetland migration results communicate uncertainty by showing flooding frequency class as probabilistic outputs.
期刊介绍:
Estuaries and Coasts is the journal of the Coastal and Estuarine Research Federation (CERF). Begun in 1977 as Chesapeake Science, the journal has gradually expanded its scope and circulation. Today, the journal publishes scholarly manuscripts on estuarine and near coastal ecosystems at the interface between the land and the sea where there are tidal fluctuations or sea water is diluted by fresh water. The interface is broadly defined to include estuaries and nearshore coastal waters including lagoons, wetlands, tidal fresh water, shores and beaches, but not the continental shelf. The journal covers research on physical, chemical, geological or biological processes, as well as applications to management of estuaries and coasts. The journal publishes original research findings, reviews and perspectives, techniques, comments, and management applications. Estuaries and Coasts will consider properly carried out studies that present inconclusive findings or document a failed replication of previously published work. Submissions that are primarily descriptive, strongly place-based, or only report on development of models or new methods without detailing their applications fall outside the scope of the journal.