Assessing future urban flood hazard: A comprehensive approach to estimating the implications of future rainfall scenarios

IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2024-06-04 DOI:10.1111/jfr3.13000
Hyeon-Tae Moon, Sun-Kwon Yoon, Jong-Suk Kim, Young-Il Moon
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Abstract

Estimating potential changes in future flood patterns based on anticipated changes in hydrological characteristics within the basin is crucial for mitigating flood damage and managing flood risk. In this study, nonparametric probability models are used to estimate future rainfall patterns in Seoul under the GCM-based climate change scenarios (CCS), and the estimated future daily rainfall data was temporally downscaled to hourly units using the KNNR-GA technique. Changes in flood hazard and runoff characteristics of the target area based on the estimated future rainfall data are quantitatively assessed. The results highlight that under CCS, flood runoff may increase further into the future, resulting in more significant changes in flood patterns and accelerating the increase in flood hazard. The delta change factor of flood risk indicators increased relatively significantly in more severe CCS. This study also proposed a process to estimate future flood runoff and mitigation effects according to CCS by reflecting various flood mitigation measures in the urban drainage system model. These findings can offer valuable insights for setting the direction of current and future mitigation measures.

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评估未来城市洪水灾害:估算未来降雨情景影响的综合方法
根据流域内水文特征的预期变化来估算未来洪水模式的潜在变化,对于减轻洪水损失和管理洪水风险至关重要。本研究采用非参数概率模型来估算首尔在基于 GCM 的气候变化情景(CCS)下的未来降雨模式,并利用 KNNR-GA 技术将估算的未来日降雨量数据按时间缩减为小时单位。根据估算的未来降雨数据,对目标区域洪水灾害和径流特征的变化进行了定量评估。结果表明,在中央案例研究条件下,洪水径流可能会在未来进一步增加,从而导致洪水模式发生更显著的变化,并加速洪水危害的增加。在更严重的 CCS 条件下,洪水风险指标的三角洲变化因子相对明显增加。本研究还提出了一套程序,通过在城市排水系统模型中反映各种洪水缓解措施,根据 CCS 估算未来的洪水径流和缓解效果。这些研究结果可为确定当前和未来的减灾措施方向提供有价值的见解。
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来源期刊
Journal of Flood Risk Management
Journal of Flood Risk Management ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-WATER RESOURCES
CiteScore
8.40
自引率
7.30%
发文量
93
审稿时长
12 months
期刊介绍: Journal of Flood Risk Management provides an international platform for knowledge sharing in all areas related to flood risk. Its explicit aim is to disseminate ideas across the range of disciplines where flood related research is carried out and it provides content ranging from leading edge academic papers to applied content with the practitioner in mind. Readers and authors come from a wide background and include hydrologists, meteorologists, geographers, geomorphologists, conservationists, civil engineers, social scientists, policy makers, insurers and practitioners. They share an interest in managing the complex interactions between the many skills and disciplines that underpin the management of flood risk across the world.
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