Investigating the Impact of TB or COVID-19 Infections on a Population Suffering from TB/COVID-19 Coinfection

Mary Ng’endo Githinji, Isaac Chepkwony
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Abstract

The discovery that the spread of tuberculosis reduced significantly in the last two years has been associated with the preventive measures placed to combat the spread of COVID-19. This shows a string correlation between the spread of COVID-19 and tuberculosis in any population. It is worth noting that tuberculosis and COVID-19 are among the leading most deadly diseases in the world today. The correlation in their spread also leaves us to believe that the spread of one can enhance the spread of the other. Hence, we propose the situation where a population is co-infected with the two diseases. The mathematical model is formulated using conservative laws and the resulting model analysed. The stability of the co-infection is analysed and the non-negativity conditions for the solution is established. It is found that tuberculosis sub-population reaches the highest capacity when the recruitment into the COVID-19 subpopulation is the lowest while the COVID-19 sub-population is attained when the rate of recruitment into the COVID-19 subpopulation is the highest.
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调查结核病或 COVID-19 感染对结核病/COVID-19 合并感染人群的影响
在过去两年中,结核病的传播明显减少,这与为遏制 COVID-19 的传播而采取的预防措施有关。这表明 COVID-19 的传播与结核病在任何人群中的传播之间都存在着密切联系。值得注意的是,结核病和 COVID-19 是当今世界上最主要的致命疾病之一。这两种疾病传播的相关性也让我们相信,其中一种疾病的传播会加剧另一种疾病的传播。因此,我们提出了人群同时感染这两种疾病的情况。我们利用保守定律建立了数学模型,并对模型进行了分析。分析了共同感染的稳定性,并确定了解的非负条件。研究发现,当 COVID-19 亚群的招募率最低时,结核病亚群的感染能力达到最高,而当 COVID-19 亚群的招募率最高时,COVID-19 亚群的感染能力达到最高。
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