Implementation of the AquaCrop Model for Forecasting the Effects of Climate Change on Water Consumption and Potato Yield Under Various Irrigation Techniques

Abstract

In this study, the AquaCrop model was employed to analyze the impact of projected future climate changes on the water usage and biomass production of potato crops in Babylon, Iraq, under varying irrigation methods. The irrigation techniques evaluated included sprinkler irrigation, surface drip irrigation, and subsurface drip irrigation at depths of 10 cm and 20 cm. The study involved simulating and forecasting conditions for the year 2050, comparing them to current conditions. The model measured and predicted the evapotranspiration (ETa) and actual biomass of potato crops for 2050 using the RCP 8.5 scenarios, which outline different trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions. The AquaCrop model was calibrated and validated using statistical measures such as the R2, RMSE, CV, EF, and D, achieving a 99% accuracy level in its performance. The findings suggest that using drip irrigation systems and applying the AquaCrop model significantly mitigates the adverse effects of environmental stress on desert soils and enhances sustainable agricultural practices in arid regions.