Analysis and optimization of global terrorism index indicators

Abstract

Relevance. Terrorism has a significantly disrupts life of the population across regions (countries). In recent years, armed conflicts have increased in number, and global terrorist activity has intensified.The objective is to analyze the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) reported across countries from 2010 to 2022 and suggest GTI optimization techniques based on risk metrics and risk indicators.Methods. The GTI is a comprehensive method to study the impact of terrorism in 163 countries, comprising 99.7 % of the world’s population. Data was obtained from annual 2011 to 2023 GTI reports, published by the Institute for Economics & Peace and its founder Steve Killelea, a technology entrepreneur. Quasi-logarithmic structures were used to normalize the baseline data to a 10-point GTI scale (where 10 is the maximum score). The risk of death (injury) among the world’s population was calculated based on the Global Terrorism Database indicators for terrorism biomedical consequences registered from 2011 to 2020. Risks were calculated per 1 million people (10–6). Among the world’s population, the individual risk of death from a terrorist attack was 2.55 • 10–6 deaths/(person • year), while the injury risk was 3.63 • 10–6 injuries/(person • year). Qualitative risk indicators were also calculated as optimal, acceptable, and elevated.Results and analysis. From 2010 to 2022, the annual average GTI indicator showed that 4 countries had a very high terrorism level (average index in Iraq – 9.32, Afghanistan – 9.03, Pakistan – 8.42, Nigeria – 8.11); 8 countries were classified as high risk, 30 countries – as average risk (including Russia – 5.57), 25 countries – as low risk, 84 countries – as very low risk, and 12 countries – as zero cases of terrorism. The GTI correlated well with the number of deaths as a most crucial indicator. At the same time, countries with a large population showed inconsistencies between GTI and terrorism risk indicators. For example, according to 2011–2020 data, China’s GTI level (5.09) was classified as average level of terrorism, with the risk of dying 0.11 • 10–6 deaths/(person • year) and the risk of injury 0.56 • 10–6 injuries/(person • year), which was 15.5 and 4.3 times below the optimal global risk, respectively. Notably, Afghanistan’s GTI level (9.15) was classified as very high risk, with the death risk 93.53 • 10–6 deaths/(person • year) and injury risk 128.49 • 10–6 injuries/(person •year), which was 27.5 and 26.6 times above the elevated global risk, respectively.Conclusion. Although apparently impossible to eradicate completely across the world, terrorism can be drawn to a minimum. The Global Terrorism Index reveals potential threats and allows to compare terrorist activity across individual territories (countries) in order to undertake the necessary political or organizational counter-terrorism measures. Following large-scale studies, risks of death and injury should be incorporated in the Global Terrorism Index enhance unbiased terrorism threat assessment for individual countries (territories).