A prediction model for prehospital clinical deterioration: The use of early warning scores.

Abstract

Background: Various prognosticative approaches to assist in recognizing clinical deterioration have been proposed. To date, early warning scores (EWSs) have been evaluated in hospital with limited research investigating their suitability in the prehospital setting. This study evaluated the predictive ability of established EWSs and other clinical factors for prehospital clinical deterioration.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study investigating adult patients of all etiologies attended by Queensland Ambulance Service paramedics between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2020, was conducted. With logistic regression, several models were developed to predict adverse event outcomes. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), Queensland Adult Deterioration Detection System (Q-ADDS), and shock index were calculated from vital signs taken by paramedics.

Results: A total of 1,422,046 incidents met the inclusion criteria. NEWS, MEWS, and Q-ADDS were found to have comparably high predictive ability with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) between 70% and 90%, whereas shock index had relatively low AUC-ROC. Sensitivity was lower than specificity for all models. Although established EWSs performed well when predicting adverse events, these scores require complex calculations requiring multiple vital signs that may not be suitable for the prehospital setting.

Conclusions: This study found NEWS, MEWS, and Q-ADDS all performed well in the prehospital setting. Although a simple shock index is easier for paramedics to use in the prehospital environment, it did not perform comparably to established EWSs. Further research is required to develop suitably performing parsimonious solutions until established EWSs are integrated into technological solutions to be used by prehospital clinicians in real time.