Model validation and applications of wave and current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory's Operational Marine Forecasting System

IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI:10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102393
Wai Kong , Ching-chi Lam , Dick-shum Lau , Chi-kin Chow , Sze-ning Chong , Pak-wai Chan , Ngo-ching Leung
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Abstract

The Hong Kong Observatory has been running an Operational Marine Forecasting System (OMFS) adapted from the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) coupled with the WaveWatch III and SWAN wave models to provide wave, current and sea temperature forecasts up to 144 h twice a day since December 2021. To facilitate users’ interpretation of model forecasts of significant wave height and current speed in coastal predictions and open seas which are of particular significance in high wind situations, model forecasts were validated against moored buoy observations and wave recorder measurements near the shores of Hong Kong and drifting buoy data over the South China Sea, as well as Mercator Ocean model reanalysis in 2022. The validation results showed that the wave forecasts generally agreed well with the buoy observations with coefficient of determination (R2) of around 0.7 and root-mean-square error (RMSE) of less than 0.2 m up to 72 h ahead. The R2 for sea current forecasts ranged between 0.4 and 0.6, and the RMSE was around 8 to 11 cm/s in near shores up to T + 144 forecast hours. Validation against drifting buoy demonstrated that the trend of current forecasts generally agreed well with the measurements. RMSE of surface current forecasts over open seas ranged from 19 cm/s for 24-hour forecast to around 30 cm/s for 144-hour forecast when compared against Mercator Ocean reanalysis. Results from the current downscaling approach could serve as a benchmark reference for HKO to enhance OMFS in the future. In this paper, applications of model forecasts in the provision of marine weather services in Hong Kong are also introduced.

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香港天文台业务化海洋预报系统波浪和海流预报的模型验证和应用
自 2021 年 12 月起,香港天文台开始运行一套由区域海洋模式系统改编的业务化海洋预报系统(OMFS),结合海浪观测 III 和 SWAN 波浪模式,提供每天两次长达 144 小时的海浪、海流和海温预报。为方便用户解释模式预报的沿岸预报和开阔海域的显著波高和海流速度(在大风情况下尤为重要),模式预报与系泊浮标观测和香港海岸附近的波浪记录仪测量数据、南海漂流浮标数据以及 2022 年墨卡托海洋模式再分析进行了验证。验证结果表明,波浪预报与浮标观测数据基本吻合,其判定系数(R2)约为 0.7,72 小时前的均方根误差(RMSE)小于 0.2 米。海流预报的 R2 在 0.4 和 0.6 之间,在预报 T + 144 小时内,近岸海流的均方根误差约为 8 至 11 厘米/秒。根据漂流浮标进行的验证表明,海流预报趋势与测量结果基本吻合。与墨卡托海洋再分析比较,开阔海域表层海流预报的均方根误差从 24 小时预报的 19 厘米/秒到 144 小时预报的约 30 厘米/秒不等。目前的降尺度方法所得的结果可作为香港天文台日后加强海洋监测系统的基准参考。本文亦介绍了模式预报在香港海洋气象服务方面的应用。
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来源期刊
Ocean Modelling
Ocean Modelling 地学-海洋学
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
9.40%
发文量
86
审稿时长
19.6 weeks
期刊介绍: The main objective of Ocean Modelling is to provide rapid communication between those interested in ocean modelling, whether through direct observation, or through analytical, numerical or laboratory models, and including interactions between physical and biogeochemical or biological phenomena. Because of the intimate links between ocean and atmosphere, involvement of scientists interested in influences of either medium on the other is welcome. The journal has a wide scope and includes ocean-atmosphere interaction in various forms as well as pure ocean results. In addition to primary peer-reviewed papers, the journal provides review papers, preliminary communications, and discussions.
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