Potential impacts of climate change on ecosystem services in Austria

Abstract

Climate change is considered a major driver for environmental changes and impacts on human well-being. Understanding the relationships between climatic changes and ecosystem services (ES) is therefore crucial to develop effective adaption and mitigation measures. However, studies that comprehensively assess climate change impacts on ES, providing also spatially explicit information, are greatly lacking. To address this gap, this study aims at assessing and mapping potential impacts on multiple ES in Central Europe, using the example of Austria. Our analysis steps included (1) mapping provisioning, regulating, and cultural ES (n = 19) using a land use/cover-based approach, (2) deriving potential impacts on indicators (n = 58), used to assess ES, through a literature analysis, (3) mapping potential impacts on ES in qualitative terms, and (4) analysing spatial patterns across Austria. Our results indicate that, in particular, water-related ES and cultural ES will decline, while some provisioning and regulating ES will improve. The spatial analysis revealed that regions located in the south-eastern parts of Austria will be potentially affected the most by climate change impacts, while less ES will decline in western mountain regions. Our findings contribute to the knowledge base for decision-making at different governance levels, supporting the development of policies and management strategies at the national and international level, as well as fostering communication with stakeholders and the elaboration of targeted management plans at the local and regional level. Our proposed mapping approach is easily transferable to other regions, but future research should address current limitations related to uncertainties in climate projections, the clear distinction of climate-induced impacts, and the role of climate-related hazards.