The influence of “momentum” on the game outcome while controlling for game types in basketball

Abstract

In competitive sports, momentum encompasses positive or negative changes in cognition, physiology, emotions, and behavior caused by sudden or a series of continuous events. Momentum occurring during basketball games leads to significant performance variation regarding positive net points differences for a specific team within a certain period. This study designed a quantitative framework based on two performative dimensions (time constraints and point differentials) to accurately identify momentum in basketball games, and explored the role of momentum in games. We identified 2,083 momentum occurrences in 372 professional elite basketball games. The number of momentum occurrences for winning teams is significantly higher than for losing teams (1.78 ± 0.47 Difference Value, p < 0.001); the correlation between momentum and game outcomes decreased as each quarter progressed. To distinguish the influence of contextual variables on momentum, we divided games into five types based on the team quality differences between the team and the opponent team. The decision tree model shows that first-quarter momentum is critical in games where weaker teams defeat stronger teams. This study provides insights for basketball coaches to formulate game strategies. More importantly, the momentum conceptual framework can help researchers identify and capture momentum, offering inspiration and reference for subsequent research.