Associations between stock market fluctuations and stress-related emergency room visits in China

Abstract

Here we study the relationship between stock market fluctuations and emergency room visits in China. Using daily emergency room visit records from the three largest hospitals in Beijing from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2012, we find that a one percentage point decrease in daily market returns (Growth Enterprises Index) is associated with 0.185 (P = 0.040, confidence interval (CI) = 0.009 to 0.361, or 0.7%) increased cases of cardiovascular diseases and 0.020 (P = 0.060, CI = 0 to −0.041, or 2.5%) increased cases of mental disorders on that day. Moreover, a one percentage point increase in daily market returns (Growth Enterprises Index) is associated with 0.035 (P = 0.007, CI = 0.010 to 0.059, or 3.3%) increase in cases of alcohol abuse on that day. The health effects are highly nonlinear, instantaneous and more salient for older people and males. By contrast, diseases that are less related to psychological stress (for example, infections and parasitic diseases) are not significantly affected by market fluctuations. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that a ten percentage point decrease in daily market returns is associated with an approximately RMB 35 million increase in national medical expenses related to emergency room services. The authors investigate the association between stock market fluctuations as measured by daily market returns and emergency room visits for mental health disorders and physical illnesses, finding the greatest effects among older people and men.