Simulating impact of climate change on growth and yield of wheat crop grown in various agro-climatic zones of India by using CERES-Wheat (DSSAT v 4.6)

Abstract

Impact of climate change on growth and yield of wheat, through various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in various agro-climatic zones of India, by using CERES-wheat model of DSSAT version 4.6 (Hoogenboom et al., 2023). Main purpose of the present study was to judge the performance of DSSAT model for wheat crop grown under diverse production environments of Bihar, India. Seven wheat cultivars (PBW 343, Ludhiana, Meerut, Faizabad & Kanpur), (WH711, Ambala),  (Raj 3765, Jaipur), (LOK 1, Bhopal & Indore), (Malviya 234, Varanasi); (HD 2824, Samstipur) and (HD 2733, Bhagalpur), with six sowing dates (25th October, 1st November, 8th November, 15th November, 22nd November and 29th November) using historic daily weather datasets from 1985-2015 and with decadal 2020 to 2100 (RCPs) for use in running of the CERES-wheat model, to evaluate the impact of temperature rise and carbon dioxide concentration increase by using future climate change scenarios. Test locations chosen for the study were contrasting during growing period of wheat crop. Effect of sowing date on wheat on yield of wheat was significantly different, in a way to identify the optimal date of sowing under normal climatic condition as well depended on the extent of temperature rise scenarios. The optimal date of sowing differed among locations in various agro-climatic zones. In north-west locations of India (specifically in Punjab) showed increased yield through one degree celcius temperature rise, due to cooler environment during the pre-anthesis phase, whereas the yield decreased with increased temperature due to reduction in crop growing duration. But interation of temperature and CO2 was quite evident. In central part of India, say in Madhya Pradesh the effect of temperature rise resulted in decreased yield due to significant reduction in duration of the crop, as in Central India usually the temperatures are relatively higher compared to north Alluvial Plains.  Choice of cultivar matching the climate condition coupled with the climate change scenario was successfully chosen through use of CERES-Wheat model. The paper clearly demonstrated the potential in use of DSSAT (CERES-Wheat) model in simulating the yield of wheat crop grown under diverse production environment, varying climatic condition and aiding in choice of suitable cultivats for sustained agri-production.