Was there an enthusiasm gap? Examining support for Donald Trump among evangelicals and nonevangelicals

IF 17.7 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-06-05 DOI:10.1017/s1755048324000142

Alondra S. Pagán Márquez, Paul A. Djupe, Matthew Mettler, Jeffery J. Mondak

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Abstract

Evangelicals arguably constitute an unexpected base of support for Donald Trump. One plausible account holds that evangelicals supported Trump reluctantly, backing him not because they strongly favored him, but rather because they viewed him as the least objectionable candidate. This perspective suggests a possible enthusiasm gap: among Donald Trump's supporters, nonevangelicals were more zealous while evangelicals were more tepid. We examine this account using data from March 2019, just past the midpoint of Trump's presidency, a period when any lack of enthusiasm with Trump among portions of his base should have been discernible. Our expansive analytical strategy, using OLS and matching, explores whether evangelicals offered Donald Trump more lukewarm support than did nonevangelicals, with support operationalized in six ways. Across 36 tests, no evidence of an enthusiasm gap between evangelicals and nonevangelicals is detected. Seen both in absolute terms and relative to nonevangelicals, evangelicals offered Donald Trump fervent support.

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是否存在热情差距？考察福音派和非福音派人士对唐纳德-特朗普的支持情况

福音派可以说是唐纳德-特朗普意想不到的支持基础。一种似是而非的说法认为，福音派人士勉强支持特朗普，不是因为他们强烈支持他，而是因为他们认为他是最不讨人嫌的候选人。这种观点提出了可能存在的热情差距：在唐纳德-特朗普的支持者中，非福音派人士更加狂热，而福音派人士则更加冷淡。我们使用 2019 年 3 月的数据对这一说法进行了研究，当时刚刚过了特朗普总统任期的中点，而在这一时期，特朗普的部分支持者对特朗普缺乏热情的情况应该是显而易见的。我们采用 OLS 和匹配的扩展性分析策略，探讨了福音派是否比非福音派更冷淡地支持唐纳德-特朗普，支持的方式有六种。在 36 次测试中，没有发现任何证据表明福音派和非福音派之间存在热情差距。无论是从绝对值来看，还是相对于非福音派人士而言，福音派人士都对唐纳德-特朗普给予了狂热的支持。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.