Spatiotemporal analysis of urban development patterns and COVID-19 in Mashhad, Iran

Abstract

This study evaluates the impact of city spatial development patterns on the spread of airborne pandemics, focusing on Mashhad, Iran. Using ArcGIS spatial statistics, 91 spatial indices were examined between March 5, 2020, and October 2, 2021, during five distinct waves of the virus, revealing that private vehicle ownership and limited use of public transportation did not significantly reduce COVID-19 infection rates in Mashhad. Instead, factors such as proximity to transportation hubs, healthcare facility polarization, and retail shop distribution had a significant impact. Surprisingly, demographic vulnerability and conventional population-related factors had relatively minor effects. The study also highlights the influence of building concentration with high floor area ratios (FAR) and the impact of local authorities' optimism in reducing social distancing measures, especially in travel and traffic control, on the increased spread of the virus during recent waves.