1981-LB: Modeling the Impact of Semaglutide 2.4 mg in U.S. Patients with Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease and BMI ≥27 kg/m2

Abstract

The SELECT trial demonstrated a 20% risk reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) with semaglutide 2.4 mg in adults with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and overweight/obesity (BMI ≥27 kg/m2). We aimed to quantify the potential population impact of this treatment in the US. National Health and Examination Survey (NHANES) data were used to characterize the US population meeting SELECT trial criteria: BMI ≥27 kg/m2, age ≥45 years, ASCVD, and no diabetes, with the number of potential treatment candidates determined using 2023 census projections. The 10-year rate of recurrent MACE events was estimated based on the SMART2 risk calculator. The potential treatment effect of semaglutide 2.4 mg on the number of MACE events in this population was estimated using results from the SELECT trial. As of 2023, 6,161,981 US adults met SELECT inclusion criteria (mean age 67.2 ± 9.9 years, 43.6% female, mean BMI 32.6 ± 5.0 kg/m2). Based on SMART2, an estimated 2,529,310 individuals (41.0%) will experience at least one MACE event in the next 10 years, with the total number of events estimated at 3,064,993. Of these, 497,631 MACE events could be avoided with semaglutide 2.4 mg treatment (Table). The possible therapeutic impact of semaglutide 2.4 mg on eligible US adults is substantial, with the potential to prevent nearly half a million CV events and deaths over the next 10 years. Disclosure M. Faurby: Employee; Novo Nordisk. M.G. Nanna: Consultant; Merck & Co., Inc., HeartFlow, Inc. J.C. Toliver: Employee; Novo Nordisk. Q.V. Doan: Consultant; Novo Nordisk, Daiichi Sankyo, Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., AbbVie Inc. A.D. Henry: Consultant; Novo Nordisk. T. Scassellati Sforzolini: Consultant; Novo Nordisk. A. Levine: Consultant; Novo Nordisk. A. Fabricatore: Employee; Novo Nordisk. Stock/Shareholder; Novo Nordisk. A.S. Houshmand-Oeregaard: Employee; Novo Nordisk. Stock/Shareholder; Eli Lilly and Company, Novo Nordisk A/S. A. Navar: Consultant; ESPERION Therapeutics, Inc. Research Support; ESPERION Therapeutics, Inc. Consultant; Amgen Inc. Research Support; Amgen Inc., Bristol-Myers Squibb Company. Consultant; Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Merck & Co., Inc., Bayer Inc., Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer Inc., New Amsterdam, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Eli Lilly and Company, Silence Therapeutics. Funding Novo Nordisk, Inc.