Unveiling the hidden dynamics of intermittent surface water: A remote sensing framework

Abstract

Intermittent surface water frequently transitioning between water and land over months and years, plays a crucial and increasingly significant role in both social and ecological systems. However, their vital and dramatic dynamics have mainly remained invisible due to monitoring limitations. We present a new remote sensing framework to capture the long-term monthly dynamics of surface water bodies, applying it to Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China. This framework employed a random forest classifier on all available Landsat data to identify monthly surface water bodies. Additionally, we developed a Spatial and Temporal Neighborhood Similarity-based Gap Filling method to restore water bodies obscured by clouds and ensure spatial integrity. Furthermore, we introduced an index to quantify the intermittency of surface water bodies on a scale from 0 to 1, allowing for the classification of water bodies into three categories: perennial, wet intermittent, and dry intermittent. Employing this framework, we reconstructed the most complete monthly 30-m surface water dataset for cloudy regions to date, covering April 1986 to September 2023, demonstrating a strong correlation (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient of 0.909) with observed water levels. The results reveal a landscape dominantly composed of intermittent water bodies (91.2%), with a rapidly shrinking trend of perennial water bodies at 1303.58 ha per year. Notably, 162,685 ha (21.9%) of water bodies transitioned toward drier and more intermittent statuses. Dry intermittent water bodies exhibited the most pronounced land-water transitions, with the highest water-to-land (82.5%) and land-to-water (89.9%) proportions among the three categories. By uncovering the hidden dynamics of intermittent surface water, and highlighting its prevalence, expansion, and vulnerability, this framework paves the way for a better understanding of these critical water dynamics across the globe.