Construction and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Mild Cognitive Impairment in Non-Dialysis Chronic Kidney Disease Patient.

Abstract

Introduction: The aims of this study are to explore the factors affecting mild cognitive impairment in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) who are not undergoing dialysis and to construct and validate a nomogram risk prediction model.

Methods: Using a convenience sampling method, 383 non-dialysis CKD patients from two tertiary hospitals in Chengdu were selected between February 2023 and August 2023 to form the modeling group. The patients were divided into a mild cognitive impairment group (n = 192) and a non-mild cognitive impairment group (n = 191), and factors such as demographics, disease data, and sleep disorders were compared between the two groups. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent influencing factors, followed by collinearity testing, and construction of the regression model. The final risk prediction model was presented through a nomogram and an online calculator, with internal validation using Bootstrap sampling. For external validation, 137 non-dialysis CKD patients from another tertiary hospital in Chengdu were selected between October 2023 and December 2023.

Results: In the modeling group, 192 (50.1%) of the non-dialysis CKD patients developed mild cognitive impairment, and in the validation group, 56 (40.9%) patients developed mild cognitive impairment, totaling 248 (47.7%) of all sampled non-dialysis CKD patients. Age, educational level, Occupation status, Use of smartphone, sleep disorders, hemoglobin, and platelet count were independent factors influencing the occurrence of mild cognitive impairment in non-dialysis CKD patients (all p < 0.05). The model evaluation showed an area under the ROC curve of 0.928, 95% CI (0.902, 0.953) in the modeling group, and 0.897, 95% CI (0.844, 0.950) in the validation group. The model's Youden index was 0.707, with an optimal cutoff value of 0.494, sensitivity of 0.853, and specificity of 0.854, indicating good predictive performance; calibration curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and clinical decision curves indicated good calibration and clinical benefit. Internal validation results showed a consistency index (C-index) of 0.928, 95% CI (0.902, 0.953).

Conclusion: The risk prediction model developed in this study shows excellent performance, demonstrating significant predictive potential for early screening of mild cognitive impairment in non-dialysis CKD patients. The application of this model will provide a reference for healthcare professionals, helping them formulate more targeted intervention strategies to optimize patient treatment and management outcomes.