Comparative analysis of prognostic scoring systems in predicting severity and outcomes of Omicron variant COVID-19 pneumonia.

Abstract

Background: The global spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) underscores the urgent need for reliable methods to forecast the disease's severity and outcome, thereby facilitating timely interventions and reducing mortality rates. This study focuses on evaluating the clinical and laboratory profiles of patients with Omicron variant-induced COVID-19 pneumonia and assessing the efficacy of various scoring systems in prognosticating disease severity and mortality.

Methods: In this retrospective analysis, we examined the clinical records of 409 individuals diagnosed with Omicron variant COVID-19 pneumonia. We documented the Pneumonia Severity Index, CURB-65, and MuLBSTA scores within the first 24 h and analyzed the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for each scoring system to ascertain their predictive accuracy for disease severity and fatality risk.

Results: The cohort's median age was 78 years, predominantly presenting with fever, cough, expectoration, fatigue, and gastrointestinal symptoms. Factors such as expectoration, fatigue, Glasgow Coma Scale score, lactate dehydrogenase levels, procalcitonin, creatinine levels, and co-occurrence of acute respiratory distress syndrome were identified as independent predictors of disease severity. Furthermore, age, oxygenation index, glucose levels, lactate dehydrogenase, and septic shock were independently associated with mortality. For severe disease prediction, the CURB-65, PSI, and MuLBSTA scores demonstrated sensitivities of 65.9%, 63.8%, and 79.7%, respectively, with specificities of 63.8%, 76.8%, and 60.9%, and AUROCs of 0.707, 0.750, and 0.728. To predict mortality risk, these scores at cutoffs of 1.5, 102.5, and 12.5 exhibited sensitivities of 83.3%, 96.3%, and 70.4%, specificities of 59.4%, 60.8%, and 65.4%, and AUROCs of 0.787, 0.850, and 0.736, respectively.

Conclusion: The study cohort predominantly comprised elderly individuals with pre-existing health conditions. Elevated lactate dehydrogenase emerged as a significant marker for both disease severity and prognosis, sputum production, gastrointestinal symptoms, GCS score, creatinine, PCT, and ARDS as independent predictors of disease severity, and age, oxygenation index, glucose levels, and septic shock as independent mortality predictors in COVID-19 pneumonia patients. Among the scoring systems evaluated, Pneumonia Severity Index demonstrated superior predictive capability for both disease severity and mortality, suggesting its utility in forecasting the clinical outcomes of Omicron variant COVID-19 pneumonia.