The impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on stock prices, profits and perceptions in the food supply chain

Abstract

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 had profound consequences for the global economy. As both countries are major commodity exporters, the food value chain was also affected. This study investigates the impact of the invasion on stock prices, profitability and sentiments of agribusinesses along the food supply chain by using an event study, financial data, and a sentiment analysis of annual reports. Overall, the findings show that firms in the food value chain were negatively impacted, with regional and sector‐specific differences. Agribusiness firms in Europe and Japan were more negatively impacted by the war than those in the United States. Stock prices of Brewers, Packaged Food and Meats, Soft drinks, and Tobacco firms were negatively impacted by the invasion, while other sectors experienced no or little impact on stock prices. Fertilizers and Agrochemicals firms overall achieved a higher profitability in 2022 compared to previous years. [EconLit Citations: G01, G12, E44, Q01].