Connectivity among the returns of sectoral indices of the Brazilian capital market

Abstract

Purpose

As specific objectives, we intend to: (1) measure the connectivity between the spillovers of returns from the financial and nonfinancial sectors of the Brazilian stock market; (2) estimate the spillovers of individual returns for each sector to identify periods of higher and lower profits over a period of around eight years; (3) investigate the existence of relationships between these repercussions between pairs of sectoral indices, evaluating how much each specific sector transfers to each other and the market as a whole and (4) examine whether the connectivity of the Brazilian stock market itself and future interest rates in the USA and Brazil as well as the risk of the Brazilian economy, were explanatory variables of the dynamics of interdependence in the returns of these indices.

Design/methodology/approach

With a daily series of closing prices of sectoral indices from March 3, 2015, until June 21, 2023, we researched eight of the most relevant sectoral indices on the São Paulo Stock Exchange (B3). With this data, we estimate the Diebold–Yilmaz spillover index and frequency decompositions of Barunik–Krehlik.

Findings

The conclusions indicate that there is an overall connection of 66% in the financial and nonfinancial sectoral indices, with a peak of 83%. The consumer, energy and public services sectors stand out as significant sources of primary spillovers. When we classified secondary effects into periods, we saw that the shocks dissipated as time passed and the returns of the commodity index remained resilient across all periods.

Originality/value

Our conclusions highlight the influence of three main factors in sectors with a high degree of connectivity: periods of increased uncertainty; negative externalities in post-crisis periods and the impact of financial news on market sentiment. We think this study provides information that can be useful for policymakers, investors, investment portfolio managers, economists (financial, monetary and industrial), investment consultants and researchers who are interested in the complex interconnection among emerging market stock indices.