Chasing parts in quadrillion: applications of dynamical downscaling in atmospheric pollutant transport modelling during field campaigns

Abstract

Atmospheric transport and dispersion models (ATDMs) are widely used to study and forecast pollution events. In the frame of the “Effect of Megacities on the transport and transformation of pollutants on the regional to global scales” (EMeRGe) project, ATDM forecasts were carried out to identify potential airborne sampling areas of perfluorocarbons (PFCs) emanating from controlled PFC releases. The forecasts involved short-distance transport over small-scale topographic maxima (Manilla; Philippines), short-distance transport over large-scale topographic maxima (Taipei, Taiwan) and long-distance transport over mixed topography (Nanjing, China, sampled over Taiwan). In situ aircraft measurements of PFC mixing ratios down to a few parts per quadrillion (ppqv) provide us with a unique dataset to explore the added benefits of dynamical downscaling. Transport simulations were repeated using FLEXPART driven by ERA5 and IFS meteorological data and FLEXPART-WRF with dynamically downscaled IFS data down to 1.1 km and four PBL parametrisations. Of the three cases studied, dynamical downscaling led to significant differences for the Manilla and Taipei releases that can be interpreted through changes in the modelled orographic flow regimes. The choice of PBL scheme also significantly impacted accuracy, but there was no systematically better-performing option, highlighting the benefits of ensemble forecasting. Results show how convergence and divergence between ensemble members can be utilised to help decision-making during field campaigns. This study highlights the role that dynamical downscaling can play as an important component in campaign planning when dealing with observations over orographically complex areas.