Comparative studies of machine learning models for predicting higher heating values of biomass

Abstract

This study addresses the challenge of efficiently determining the higher heating value (HHV) of biomass, a crucial parameter in large-scale biomass-based energy systems. The conventional method of measuring HHV using an oxygen bomb calorimeter is time-consuming, expensive, and less accessible to researchers, particularly in developing nations. To overcome these limitations, we employed four machine learning (ML) models, namely Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree (DT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). These models were developed by using proximate and ultimate analysis parameters as input features. Up to 200 datasets were compiled from literature and used for the ML models. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of all ML models in accurately predicting the HHV of biomass materials. Notably, the XGBoost model exhibited superior performance with the highest R-squared (R²) values for both training (0.9683) and test datasets (0.7309), along with the lowest root mean squared error (RSME) of 0.3558. Key influential input features identified for HHV prediction include carbon (C), volatile matter (Vm), ash, and hydrogen (H). Consequently, this research provides a reliable alternative for predicting HHV without the need for costly and time-intensive experimental measurements, facilitating broader accessibility in biomass energy research.