Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Marginal Sea Heatwaves of the Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean

Abstract

Marginal seas of the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO), including the South Java coasts and the Timor and Arafura Seas, are hotspots of large-scale marine heatwaves (MHWs) in austral summer with notable impacts on local ecosystems. Yet, the prediction of these MHWs remains challenging. By analyzing 39 MHWs and 45 marine cold-spells (MCSs) observed in the summers of 1982–2021, this study reveals a robust modulation effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on these events. The results show that 56% of MHWs and 51% of MCSs overlapped with MJO events, and their duration is systematically longer than others. Moreover, MHWs in phases 3–4 and MCSs in phases 6–7 of the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index were nearly 2–3 times stronger in intensity than the others. The passage of MJOs drives prominent intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the SETIO through perturbing surface heat fluxes, which in turn modulates the occurrence of MHWs and MCSs. During RMM phases 1–2 (convective center over of the east of Africa or the central-western Indian Ocean), the SETIO is controlled by a dry condition, with increased surface insolation and suppressed latent heat release. These anomalous fluxes drive a persistent SST increase, facilitating the emergence of strong and prolonged MHWs in the subsequent RMM phases 3–4. Further analysis suggests an 18% probability for MHWs in the SETIO 12 ± 10 days after Phase 1. Therefore, the MJO contributes to the predictability of MHWs/MCSs of the SETIO, with implications for predicting climate extremes and hazards.