On the Shallowing of Antarctic Low-Level Temperature Inversions Projected by CESM-LE under RCP8.5

IF 2.8 3区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Journal of Meteorological Research Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI:10.1007/s13351-024-3146-6
Minghu Ding, Lin Zhang, Tingfeng Dou, Yi Huang, Yingyan Luo, Junmei Lyu, Cunde Xiao
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Abstract

Temperature inversions are frequently observed in the boundary layer and lower troposphere of polar regions. Future variations of the low-level temperature inversions in these regions, especially the Antarctic, are still poorly understood. Due to the scarcity of observations in the Antarctic, reanalysis data and numerical simulations are often used in the study of Antarctic climate change. Based on ERA-Interim, ERA5, JRA-55, and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis products, this study examines temporal and spatial variations of Antarctic inversion depth in austral autumn and winter during 1979–2020. Deeper inversions are found to occur over the high plateau areas of the Antarctic continent. Based on the Mann–Kendall test, ERA-Interim and ERA5 data reveal that the Antarctic inversion depth in austral autumn and winter increased during 1992–2007, roughly maintained afterwards, and then significantly decreased since around 2016. The decrease trend is more obvious in the last two months of winter. Overall, JRA-55 better represents the spatial distribution of inversion depth, and ERA-Interim has better interannual variability. The Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) 30-member simulations in 1979–2005 were first verified against JRA-55, showing reasonable consistency, and were then used to project the future changes of Antarctic low-level inversion depth over 2031–2050 under RCP8.5. The CESM-LE projection results reveal that the temperature inversion will shallow in the Antarctic at the end of the 21st century, and the decrease in depth in autumn will be more pronounced than that in winter. In particular, the temperature inversion will weaken over the ice-free ocean, while it will remain stable over the ice sheet, showing certain spatial heterogeneity and seasonal dependence on the underlying cryospheric surface conditions. In addition, the decrease of inversion depth is found closely linked with the reduction in sea ice, suggesting the strong effect of global warming on the thermal structure change of the Antarctic.

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关于 CESM-LE 预测的 RCP8.5 条件下南极低层温度倒置的浅化问题
在极地地区的边界层和对流层低层经常观测到温度倒挂现象。人们对这些地区(尤其是南极地区)低层温度倒转的未来变化仍然知之甚少。由于南极地区的观测资料很少,因此在研究南极气候变化时经常使用再分析数据和数值模拟。本研究基于ERA-Interim、ERA5、JRA-55和NCEP-NCAR再分析产品,研究了1979-2020年间南极秋冬季逆转深度的时空变化。研究发现,较深的倒转出现在南极大陆的高原地区。根据Mann-Kendall检验,ERA-Interim和ERA5数据显示,1992-2007年期间,南极秋冬季的南极反转深度有所增加,之后基本保持不变,2016年前后开始明显下降。下降趋势在冬季最后两个月更为明显。总体而言,JRA-55 更好地代表了反转深度的空间分布,ERA-Interim 具有更好的年际变化性。1979-2005年共同体地球系统模式大型集合(CESM-LE)的30个成员模拟首先与JRA-55进行了验证,显示出合理的一致性,然后用于预测RCP8.5下2031-2050年南极低空反转深度的未来变化。CESM-LE 预测结果显示,21 世纪末南极地区的温度反转将变浅,秋季反转深度的减小将比冬季更明显。其中,无冰海洋上的温度反转将减弱,而冰盖上的温度反转将保持稳定,表现出一定的空间异质性和与底层冰冻层表面条件的季节依赖性。此外,反转深度的减小与海冰的减少密切相关,表明全球变暖对南极热结构变化的强烈影响。
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来源期刊
Journal of Meteorological Research
Journal of Meteorological Research METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
6.20
自引率
6.20%
发文量
54
期刊介绍: Journal of Meteorological Research (previously known as Acta Meteorologica Sinica) publishes the latest achievements and developments in the field of atmospheric sciences. Coverage is broad, including topics such as pure and applied meteorology; climatology and climate change; marine meteorology; atmospheric physics and chemistry; cloud physics and weather modification; numerical weather prediction; data assimilation; atmospheric sounding and remote sensing; atmospheric environment and air pollution; radar and satellite meteorology; agricultural and forest meteorology and more.
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