Accuracy of second and third molar maturity indices, Olze, Haavikko, and Demirjian methods for 14- and 16-year-old age thresholds assessment in Croatian children and adolescents.

IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL International Journal of Legal Medicine Pub Date : 2024-11-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-11 DOI:10.1007/s00414-024-03278-0
Lei Shi, Ivan Galić, Sandra Anić-Milošević, Luka Banjšak, Hrvoje Brkić
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Abstract

This study explores the reliability of four established legal age threshold estimation approaches in a Croatian sample. We applied Haavikko stages, Demirjian stages, Olze's third molar eruption stages, and second and third molar maturity indices measurement in 593 orthopantomograms of Croatian children and adolescents aged 11.00-20.99 years old. The left mandibular second and third molar were assessed. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to test the significance of predictive variables. Logistic Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were performed to evaluate the classification ability of variables for estimating 14- and 16-year-old thresholds. The areas under the ROC curve (AUC), accuracy (Acc), sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), Positive Likelihood Ratio (LR +), Negative Likelihood Ratio (LR-), and Bayes post-test probability (Bayes PTP) were calculated to evaluate classification performance. Results suggest that the combination of I2M&I3M is the best classifier for the 14-year-old threshold (AUC = 0.879); for males alone, I2M is an even better classifier (AUC = 0.881). The highest Acc 80.1% (95%CI, 75.9%-83.9%), Bayes PTP 86.5% (95%CI, 82.8%-89.7%) and Sp 88.9% (95%CI, 83.0%-93.3%) were by I3M < 0.81 & I2M < 0.03 in total samples; the highest Acc 86.1% (80.6%- 90.6%), Bayes PTP 87.2% (95%CI, 81.7%- 91.4%) and Sp 87.8% (95%CI, 78.2%- 94.3%) were by I2M < 0.01 in males, Acc of Haavikko Ac and Demirjian H stage in second molar is very close with slightly lower Bayes PTP and Sp. I3M is a good classifier for 16-year-old threshold (AUC = 0.889). The cut-off value I3M < 0.34 can be used to classify the 16-year-old threshold with Acc of 80.6% (95%CI, 77.2%-83.7%), Sp of 83.4% (95%CI, 79.0%-87.3%), and 81.7% (95%CI, 78.4%-84.8%) Bayes PTP. In conclusion, to classify the 14-year-old threshold, a pair of cut-off values I3M < 0.81 & I2M < 0.03 can be used in Croatian females; I2M < 0.01, Demirjian H stage, Haavikko Ac stage in second molar, and the pair I3M < 0.81 & I2M < 0.03 can all be used in Croatian males. I3M < 0.34 can classify the 16-year-old threshold in Croatian populations.

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第二和第三磨牙成熟度指数、Olze、Haavikko 和 Demirjian 方法对克罗地亚儿童和青少年 14 岁和 16 岁年龄阈值评估的准确性。
本研究在克罗地亚样本中探讨了四种既定法定年龄阈值估计方法的可靠性。我们在 593 个克罗地亚 11.00-20.99 岁儿童和青少年的正侧位照片中应用了 Haavikko 阶段、Demirjian 阶段、Olze 第三磨牙萌出阶段以及第二和第三磨牙成熟度指数测量法。对左下颌第二和第三磨牙进行了评估。进行了逻辑回归分析,以检验预测变量的显著性。为评估变量对 14 岁和 16 岁阈值的分类能力,还绘制了逻辑受体工作特征曲线(ROC)。计算了 ROC 曲线下面积(AUC)、准确性(Acc)、灵敏度(Se)、特异性(Sp)、正似然比(LR +)、负似然比(LR-)和贝叶斯检测后概率(Bayes PTP),以评估分类性能。结果表明,对于 14 岁的阈值,I2M 和 I3M 的组合是最好的分类器(AUC = 0.879);对于男性单独使用,I2M 是更好的分类器(AUC = 0.881)。对于 16 岁临界值,I3M 2M 2M 3M 是一个很好的分类器(AUC = 0.889),Acc 80.1%(95%CI,75.9%-83.9%)、Bayes PTP 86.5%(95%CI,82.8%-89.7%)和 Sp 88.9%(95%CI,83.0%-93.3%)是最高的。临界值 I3M 3M 2M 2M 3M 2M 3M
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
9.50%
发文量
165
审稿时长
1 months
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Legal Medicine aims to improve the scientific resources used in the elucidation of crime and related forensic applications at a high level of evidential proof. The journal offers review articles tracing development in specific areas, with up-to-date analysis; original articles discussing significant recent research results; case reports describing interesting and exceptional examples; population data; letters to the editors; and technical notes, which appear in a section originally created for rapid publication of data in the dynamic field of DNA analysis.
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