Meat production and zoonotic disease outbreaks in Asia

Abstract

Is there a link between meat production and infectious diseases? Researchers, policymakers and pundits argue that the growth of demand for meat in Asia can increase the risk of zoonotic diseases, pathogens that originate in animals and can be transmitted to humans. Using original data on zoonotic disease outbreaks in 22 Asian countries between 1996 and 2019, this study examines the impact of beef, chicken and pork production on zoonotic outbreaks—focussing on all diseases and disaggregated subcategories. Because such outbreaks lead to culling animals, data on inorganic chemical fertiliser use are used to identify the plausibly exogenous relationship flowing from meat production to outbreaks. Results indicate that in these countries, intensive meat production may have contributed to a 16%–300% rise (for a one-million-tonne increase in output) in zoonotic outbreak incidence. Findings also suggest this relationship is primarily driven by flu pathogens' higher sensitivity to meat production, with a one-million-tonne increase in output being associated with a 48%–530% rise in the number of predicted flu outbreaks. These results are consistent across numerous sensitivity analyses accounting for modelling, operationalisation, and data selection choices.